Business cycles are usually measured by considering the growth rate of real gross domestic product.A low-pass filter is an electronic filter that passes low-frequency signals but attenuates (reduces the amplitude of) signals with frequencies higher than the cutoff frequency.The regressors are monthly series from the Business Cycle Indicators database of the Conference Board.Dividing the sample period into a subset for model initialization (1959∶9–1970∶12) and a subset for testing (1971∶1–2003∶12) yields a chronology that is nearly identical to that established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).Finally, based on the results of the different methods, a consensus business cycle chronology for the German economy is suggested.I gratefully acknowledge comments and suggestions from Klaus Wälde and two anonymous referees.
Business-Cycle Regimes", Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 17, 313-323. C., (1946), Measuring Business Cycles, New York, NBER. Christiano, L., Fitzgerald, T., (1998), "The Business Cycle: It's still a Puzzle". "Predicting Turning Points, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolois Research Department Staff Report No.
Business cycle chronologies offer reference points for empirical studies used as benchmarks for business cycle and recession theory.
A quasi-official chronology exists for the US economy, but not for most European countries, including Germany.
(2004), “Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area”, Oxford Bulletin of Economic and Statistics, Vol.
(2003), “Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle”, Universite Catholique du Louvain, IRES, Working Papers. (2003), “Dating the Italian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Procedures”, Istituto di Studi ed Analisi Economica, ISAE, Working Papers.